The year 2015 will take place in Poland under the sign of democratic appointment of prime importance. Starting in May, the Poles will be invited to elect the new head of state, and then they return to the polls in the fall to choose their deputies.
The first round of presidential elections is scheduled for May 10, the campaign is in full swing. Although the presidential election is not essential in the Polish electoral system, it nevertheless defines the starting position of the political forces for the main event which is the general election. For this reason, the current presidential campaign is some interest: according to the latest opinion polls, 61% of voters declare their intention to vote.
Between political authority and supreme performance, what role for the president?
The head of the Polish state is elected by the citizens of Poland, by direct universal suffrage for a term of five years, renewable once. Poland is a parliamentary republic, the president's powers are not very extensive and it becomes more of a political and moral authority it actually directs the affairs of the state. He appoints the Prime Minister (PM), but in practice, it is the leader of the parliamentary majority rests the task of forming the government. The Chief Executive still has the legislative initiative and can influence directly using its veto. This allows, for example, to block a bill even if his veto can be overruled by a majority of three fifth parliament (Sejm). Supreme representative of the Polish state, he is also the commander in chief of the armed forces.
Youth and security on the election debates
Three themes dominate the presidential campaign in Poland. First, the demographic crisis in the country and youth unemployment, more and more people are choosing the path of emigration, placing the young generation in political debates center.
Then there are the issues of security and positioning of Poland on the international stage. They attract a lot of interest from voters, worried by the civil war taking place in the Ukrainian neighbor.
Finally, in a country where the weight of the Church is still very strong, issues related to freedom of conscience, such as in vitro fertilization or abortion, occupy a size in electoral battles. They excite much of the Polish population and easily become the focal point for the selection of voters.
Re-election of the president can?
A dozen candidates have already submitted their intention to run for the presidential office but, according to opinion polls, only two of them can claim to reach the second round of voting.
The outgoing president, Bronislaw Komorowski (62), in office since 2010, is the favorite for this election. Close to the party, the Liberals in power (PO Civic Platform), it has the support of this party without being its candidate because, as he stated at the beginning of the campaign, he "would like to be today candidate of all citizens "and" being a president that goes beyond the barriers of political divisions. " By declaring his willingness to run for another term, he said he was "encouraged by a good perception" of his first five years by the Poles and the "high level of confidence" of which he is credited. It has, indeed, a great popularity among his countrymen despite his lack of charisma.
The family and the fight against the demographic crisis, modernization and improvement of economic competitiveness and the security of the country, based on close cooperation with the European Union and NATO, are the three main axes of his campaign . Defense Minister in 2000-2001, he highlights his skills and experience to assume the role of head of the armed forces.
Polls published from the campaign Bronislaw Komorowski credited them about 60% of the vote, confirming the view of some analysts about a possible re-election in the first round of voting, 10 May Since then, his main rival, the Conservative Andrzej Duda, representative of the opposition party Law and Justice (PiS), redid some of the delay.
The candidate of the Catholic right, only one able to challenge the incumbent president
In 2010, Komorowski had beaten in the second round of voting the head of Law and Justice, Jaroslaw Kaczynski, twin brother of former President Lech Kaczynski died in 2010 in the Smolensk plane crash in Russia. He decided, this time, not to introduce and support a young virtually unknown candidate. Himself as the "candidate of all Polish patriots", MEP Andrzej Duda (42) wants to follow the path of his mentor Lech Kaczynski, known for his ultra-conservatism and Euroscepticism. He did, however, neither political experience nor its former legitimacy of activist "Solidarnosc" and the program he proposes seems to be based primarily on a critical block in the policies of the ruling coalition.
Considered by its critics as a politician third, it multiplies the populist promises, often in areas that are not even part of the prerogatives of the president. Regarding his vision of foreign policy, it does not differ much from that of the current president.
Backed by a Catholic conservative electorate and the candidate Duda disapproves all progressive bills in the area of individual freedoms (in vitro fertilization, abortion and women's rights), thus cutting the centrist electorate largely favorable changes in this area. It will therefore have to redouble their efforts to compete with the candidate of the Polish Peasant Party (PSL), Adam Jarubas and try to conquer at least part of the electorate campaigns. This young politician (40 years), also infringed, defined himself as "the province of Poland's spokesman," is trying to build its electoral capital on fears of Poles to face a potential conflict with Russia. His campaign, based on a virulent criticism of the foreign policy of the ruling coalition (of which his party belongs!), Remains unconvincing for the moment. He is credited with 2% of the vote.
American political marketing for the post-communist left
The third place in the polls up to the applicant designated by the Democratic Left Alliance (SLD former Communists), Magdalena Ogorek. This young (36 years old) specialist Church's history has a limited awareness among the general public. His candidacy surprises and amazes. Straight out of the party leader hat, Leszek Miller, and presented as an open candidate facing the new generations of Poles, progressive and pro-European, the young woman with mannequin-like rather appears as the last card that SLD leaders want to play to save training in crisis.
According to many observers, use the application Magdalena Ogorek, which contrasts significantly with that of Bronislaw Komorowski, would be part of the party's marketing strategy. Through this application, gadget, it is the conquest of young voters for the upcoming parliamentary elections is covered. Yet the same experts strongly doubt the success of these political calculations. They alert rather on the risk to the party to further weaken its traditional electorate (consisting of the generation of over 50 years) completely disoriented by the incoherent of the candidate.
Totally lacking in political experience and mixing in his campaign of center-right slogans (facilities granted to entrepreneurs, creating a National Guard) and left (in vitro fertilization, pension issue), Magdalena Ogorek seems implausible. His populist rhetoric ("the rebuilding of the Polish Act"), its total lack of new ideas for the values of the left and his way of dodging important issues (such as the separation of church and the state) are instead left to gather, she participated in his division.
The outsiders of the presidential unconvincing 2015
Presidential elections always drain their share of unlikely candidates found the opportunity to promote their political agenda and focus on the national stage ideas hitherto remained marginal. This is the case of the transsexual MP, Anna Grodzka, supported by the Green Party, not represented in parliament or singer Pawel Kukiz. Others, like Janusz Palikot, revelation of the 2010 presidential or Janusz Korwin-Mikke, far-right MEP, trying to remain on the political spectrum, even without a real grassroots.
It is difficult at present to predict whether the first round of the presidential election will be enough to Bronislaw Komorowski to win again. According to the latest opinion polls, nothing is less certain.
It is March 26 will be known as the final list of candidates officially invested.
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